Two to five 'major' hurricanes predicted this year: forecasters

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean could be at an "above-normal level" this year, forecasters are warning.

Scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say warming oceans and atmospheric conditions have increased the likelihood of more hurricane activity this year.

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NOAA says there is a 60 per cent chance this season could be above-normal, an increase from May's prediction that suggested a 30 per cent chance of above-normal storm activity.

"NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook…calls for 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 62 kilometres per hour or greater), of which six to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 119 kilometres per hour or greater)," the statement on the NOAA website reads.

Of the storms, scientists predict two to five could become "major" hurricanes.

A "normal" hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three that are major hurricanes, NOAA says.

WHAT IS MAKING IT AN ABOVE-NORMAL SEASON?

Hurricanes are tropical cyclones found in the Atlantic Ocean, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific. Storms of the same nature in the northwest Pacific Ocean are called typhoons. Canada's hurricane season runs from June until November, the government's website says.

NOAA blames the ongoing El Nino weather event for warming the Atlantic Ocean.

"Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season," Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a press release.

El Nino is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that is already impacting Canada and the weather. NOAA says El Nino is the reason for the record-breaking ocean temperatures.

"(The ocean) has to be above 30 degrees to get intense evaporation," Richard Dewey, associate director of science with Ocean Networks Canada, previously told CTVNews.ca

When there is accelerated evaporation with high winds, the storm "feeds itself," he said.

Typically El Nino helps lessen Atlantic hurricanes, the NOAA says, but this year the factors that allow for that have been slow to develop.

"Climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season," NOAA says.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CANADA

Canada's hurricane season is well underway and has sparked a hurricane that did not reach Canada, but more activity could cause concern for people still recovering from Hurricane Fiona.

In September 2022, Fiona devastated parts of the east coast including Port aux Basques, N.L., and left communities still rebuilding well into this year.

Insured damages for the storm reached $800 million.

NOAA also predicted an above-normal season for 2022, a consistent trend seen in the last six years, a prediction from NOAA in 2021 shows.